Tom's Take: looking toward March

February 10th 2010

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            For a program like Kentucky's--when it's at the level it should be, as it is now--the basketball season is a little like running for the presidency.  There's a campaign phase and there's a governing phase and they are two distinctly different challenges.

            The campaign phase for a basketball team is the four months of the regular season when you attempt to secure a number one seed or something close to it.  In the last 20 years, only once has the NCAA tournament champion not been among the top three seeds in a regional (Arizona winning it all as a four-seed over Kentucky in overtime in '97 is the exception).

            The governing phase is the tournament.  Once the campaign has positioned you with a high enough seeding to have a realistic chance of winning it all, a team has to be playing its best basketball in order to win the six games it takes to bring home the championship trophy.

            For the Kentucky Wildcats, the second half of the SEC regular season and the three days they hope to play in the league tournament in Nashville are all about getting that piece of the puzzle in place.  Barring a very unlikely collapse, Kentucky has put itself in position to be a one or two seed.  Forget about the RPI for this discussion because if the Cats go into Selection Sunday with no more three losses, they're probably home free for a one seed.  The reason is that the Big East teams figure to knock each other off a time or two and no other teams are going to have the resume it takes to get one of those four 1's from the selection committee.

            John Calipari knows he has the talent on his team to go all the way, but relying so heavily on freshmen is no doubt an uneasy feeling for any coach.  That's why I imagine you'll hear him harping on a few key points down the stretch--cutting down on turnovers (50 in the last 3 games), limiting offensive rebounds (the big issue in the team's one loss),

the ability to get stops in a close game because that's what leads to game-breaking runs more than great offense.  
            In the 66-55 win over Alabama, the Cats made way too many unforced turnovers in the first half and although they were much better after intermission, 16 turnovers is still just too many.  And the 14 offensive rebounds Bama got was a sign of a team that wasn't really focused on its task either.  And it would be nice to see Eric Bledsoe and Darius Miller rediscover their outside shots. 
            Calipari suggested the team was possibly looking ahead to Tennessee on Saturday and all of the hoopla that will accompany that game and that's certainly a possibility.  But give Bama some credit, too.  Anthony Grant had a great plan and his team executed it well.  The four road games coming up in the next few weeks will give this team a good test for March Madness--let's see how they respond in those games.
       

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